Sniegoski on the Empire
The next war
Azerbaijan or Abkhasia
By Dr. STEPHEN J. SNIEGOSKI
From close reading of the media it appears that U.S./NATO's next operation will be in Azerbaijan, supporting the Azeri government in suppressing the Armenian secessionists in Nagorno-Karabakh. Can't allow disgruntled ethnic groups to break up established countries, after all! That is a switch back to the principle used in Bosnia and a jettisoning of the "right to self-determination" argument used in Kosovo.
Few seem to appreciate the Orwellian quality of these twists and turns. The ignorant masses have too short a memory; the "educated" always support the party line.
But a pro-war ex-CIA acquaintance of mine, who does much traveling in the former Soviet republics for his consulting firm, tells me that Abkhasia is the next target, to be followed by Azerbaijan. Abkhasia gets little mention in the established media, but I have also been informed, by an expert in the field, that there is indeed talk about U.S./NATO intervention in Abkhasia though apparently insiders are undecided on the issue. Abkhasia has seceded from Georgia and is aided by Russia. The Abkhasians, however, make up only about 17 percent of the population of the seceded area; Georgians comprise about 50 percent. U.S. intervention would be justified on the grounds of opposing minority rule as well as opposing secession.
My CIA acquaintance points out that the real reason for intervention would be to cripple Russia. (He's all for it!) I have been told that the intervention has to take place while Russia is still under Yeltsin, who can be bribed by the West. Once the Communists or nationalists take over such intervention would be too dangerous. So it is necessary to weaken Russia as much as possible before the change in regime.
June 21, 1999
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